Hey everyone just another sunny day in austin I hope. Lots of interesting movements in the currency recently there has really been a breakdown of the dollar
"World leaders are acting on threats to dump the dollar while the Obama administration shows a willingness to tolerate a weaker currency in an effort to boost exports and the economy as long as it doesn’t drive away the nation’s creditors. The diversification signals that the currency won’t rebound anytime soon after losing 10.3 percent on a trade-weighted basis the past six months, the biggest drop since 1991.
“Global central banks are getting more serious about diversification, whereas in the past they used to just talk about it,” said Steven Englander, a former Federal Reserve researcher who is now the chief U.S. currency strategist at Barclays in New York. “It looks like they are really backing away from the dollar.”
Sliding Share
The dollar’s 37 percent share of new reserves fell from about a 63 percent average since 1999. Englander concluded in a report that the trend “accelerated” in the third quarter. He said in an interview that “for the next couple of months, the forces are still in place” for continued diversification." Bloomberg
This presents lots of intersting challenges for investors. But also lots of opportunity. I want to discuss some ways to make money off of these big changes. For one many people say buy gold. I think it is a good idea but you have to be careful gold has big up and down swings. And right now it is at an all time so its tough you know is this the beginning of a whole new level or the peak of trading. Of course many people say it has broken through a resistance level and will continue to rise sharply. Take a look at IAU the IShares Gold Index. Its confusing because so many people thing gold will go crazy and there are still others that think its a great short here is a good story presenting both opinions Jim Rogers Doubts the Dollar.
Here are several other dollar trades for the etf investor who is looking to purchase some currency with out directly buying futures a great way to take advantage of the falling dollar DXDDX Direxional 2.5X dollar Bear Fund here is the page about it from direxion itself DOLLAR BULL.
My other strategy I have been thinking a lot about it is a better bond bet. Bonds in america just aren't exciting enough for me I want to have maybe between 20-30 percent in some sort of bonds so I was thinking where are some areas internationally that should have good bonds. One way to do this with a mutual fund is through Dimensional Fund Advisors Selectively Hedged Global Fixed Income Portfolio. I would like to say I know how to buy brazilian bonds but I don't work at a bond trading desk but here is another hella good way to make some money on some bonds with 10 yr rates of returns in the high 30% talk about damn good returns on bonds Dreyfus's. More examples are ishares EMB which is an index of JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond Fund .
Well thats all the time I have for now. Have a great day of trading.
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