Saturday, September 26, 2009

The EU and FSB

http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=6431.4919.0.0

Interesting information about the EU and how the financial crisis is impacting there economic environment.

Friday, September 25, 2009

Genta Coverage continued

 More good

Genta gaining traction before release of AGENDA trial resultshttp://seekingalpha.com/instablog/476991-r-saito/28053-genta-moves-higher-as-agenda-trial-results-loom

Genta moves higher as AGENDA trial results loom
http://biomedreports.com/articles/most-popular/10059-genta-gaining-traction-before-release-of-agenda-trial-results.html

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Why interest rate spreads are so low.

So bonds are yielding very low currently.  The spreads are very low.  currently.  Its hard to explain if you think that you should be rewarded for holding more risky notes/ bonds.  There is systematic country and currency risk then there is just the risk of the borrower defaulting and both of these are currently mounting.   We were in a recession and probably are still in one.  With the avg american in the past several years having spent more than they made.  Americans have gone more and more in debt every year "helping" the economy.   Eventually you realize things aren't going to get that much better  every year your big raise isn't coming this next 6 months you probably shouldn't spend more than you made in fact you might want to save some of that. 

Well now people are saving more but that takes away from consumption.  With the big pull back in the stock market and commodities, people pulled out lots of $ and were holding on to them trying to find out what to do.  After many people lost 50% of there money in stocks and commodities.  People have decided to put there money back into bonds I was talking with a portfolio manager that manages 4 billion for an institution he said that according to money flow indexes 90% of money flowing into markets is going into bonds.   With this increase in bond holdings greatly increasing the supply of money.  The demand for money is staying the same or decreasing.  Companies don't want to buy huge new corporate warehouses and new commercial real estate.   Expansion has slowed.   The same thing with consumers we stand to consume less we never needed to consume at the rate we did.   Just cause money is cheap doesn't mean you need it.     So Demand increase for money because of its lower interest rate has not increased.  Businesses don't know if they will be able to make more money with there new borrowings some don't even know if they can pay off there past debt.  Check out the graph below to check out whats happening.   So with supply increasing and no more or slightly more demand the interest rates continue to fall.   And spreads will get thinner.  People will want higher returns.  But they will have to take riskier and riskier debt.    Its a risky bizness but someone has to do it.  










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Genta Inc. GETA get it while its hot...

GETA Genta Inc. www.genta.com/  this is a trade jacob suggested we did really well on this one.   Jacob had been following it for a couple of months.  He says its going to cure or help treat cancer specifically melanoma .  Which would be Great.  I was trying to get in at .33 but i missed my mark and it stayed above .4 for awhile so i got it at .39 about 2 weeks ago.  It started heading straight up about a week or 2 ago.   Today it ended at 1.15 and hit 1.26 it was awesome so i ended the day with 194% profit on GETA.

I bought 590 more shares at the end of the day getting to 1500 shares i did a limit order at 1.15.  I want to get to 2000 shares in the next couple of days.  I think it will hit $2.00 in the next couple of days and jacob thinks that it will hit like 20-30 before the announcement date in december.  that would be freaking awesome.   I can't decide if trading back and forth is a good idea or just hold it to december.  I can't wait till there is options trading on genta.  

Next up why bond yields are falling and the risk is still the same or greater.  I thought markets were efficient and you got paid for your risk.   not today.



Interesting news for today
Housing Crash to Resume on 7 Million Foreclosures, Amherst Says


Card Defaults Surge in August to 11.49%, Moody’s Says (Update1) 

World to America: We Want Our Gold Back






About penny stocks

my friend jacob and I have been trying to figure out the best way to make money quickly on the stock market I say long macro trends executed through strategic etf trading and he says penny stocks. For the last 6 months I have been consistently wrong so we started a site discussing the penny plays were working with, and interesting macro economic analysis. The first topic of discussion will be the stock GETA Genta inc.